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Updated on Friday, July 10

#21089

OMG: Waterloo riding has 80% chance of turning Liberal in the next federal election. Something to look forward to in the future. Curious to what the Cons will try to scam this time.

19 comments

  1. Based on what data?

    And keep in mind that looking at polls 4 months before an election is as good as looking 4 years before an election.

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    1. threehundredeight.com aggregate

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    2. Re. 1.a: the issue with the current snapshot is not methodological but rather secular trends. Changes during the election, in whichever direction, will probably dwarf the current margins. Take account of today's polling uncertainty w.r.t. forecasting election results and you don't have much to work with.

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  2. I don't set a lot of stock in threehundredeight's predictions. Plus it's way too far out to predict.

    Also, these things are more local than you might imagine - Kitchener-Waterloo in particular has a history of voting local. And Peter Braid is a very active, very popular MP. So I think only a fool would write him off just yet.

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    1. Braid is a walking puppet who just hands out pork money. Talk to people in the area and you'll find out how truly popular he is. Hopefully the area goes NDP like it did provincially.

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    2. Really? From where I stand, he's been a pretty strong advocate for investment in Waterloo Region infrastructure, as well as development of our science, technology, and innovation industries.

      And that's to say nothing of his pet projects on charitable giving. The guy's ideas have, several times, been picked up for inclusion in government legislation. He's made it easier for first-time donors to give to charity through the introduction of special tax credits, and he pushed the charitable giving tax deadline back so that everyone isn't scrambling to make their donations to charity while also strapped for cash during the holiday season. These are good things!

      If you've ever talked to the guy, he's a reasonable, moral person, with a reputation for sidestepping a lot of the blind partisanship you often see in Ottawa. I'll probably vote Conservative in KW as long as he keeps running... at least if he continues this sort of work.

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    3. To be fair 2.b those were not his ideas regarding investment. The ideas came from the party where, unless it's a really big coincidence, they came from an outside source.

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    4. No argument there 2c. I don't particularly expect any MP to be an overtly original thinker/mover... I just want them to advocate for policies that align with my own worldview (more or less). It'd make me nervous if nobody had considered/discussed something before an MP first suggested doing it.

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  3. Doesn't really matter, the Conservatives will likely win a minority. Even the NDP will outperform the Liberals this time around.

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    1. You mean like last time?

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  4. I'm pretty conservative, but I don't know that I'll vote for them this time. Their anti-Trudeau ads are offensively stupid. I don't know who the hell the are trying to appeal to.

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    1. This early on? It's mostly a "rally support/donations" thing from the partisans who tend to get whipped into a frenzy by that sort of thing. Ads like that bring in money from the party core, because they're terrified that if they don't donate, he might actually become their Prime Minister.

      ...It's an effective tactic, but one that will change in nature post-writ, I expect, as they try to win over undecided voters in key areas (mostly Ontario), and hold on to voters in areas they rely on for support (Alberta and the West).

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  5. Interesting that none one even mentioned Bill C-51. There's no way that I'm going to vote Conservative since they passed that bill.

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    1. 5, and let's not forget the Liberals also voted for C-51, and the NDP haven't explicitly promised to repeal it... doesn't leave you with many options, I guess.

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  6. God, I hope not. The liberal part is just the other side of the coin to the conservatives. Politics is just a big game to both parties, and they have less desire to good things for canadians than they do to look good to canadians, and I have a problem with that.

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    1. That's just the fundamental nature of politics: the goal of every elected politician is, ultimately, to get re-elected. That trumps basically everything else.

      It's why the truly controversial stuff always happens in the first year of a majority, when nobody can touch them. Take the Wynne Government here in Ontario, for instance. In her first year in office, she went to war with the teacher's unions, reduced the size of the Ontario public service by nearly 50,000 workers (mostly attrition/retirement), froze spending increases across all departments, and privatized Hydro One. That's pretty damn controversial stuff.

      Guaranteed though, all we'll hear out of her in a few years is stuff about how her government "defends fundamental Canadian liberties and equality for marginalized groups, which the PCs will destroy." The same principle basically applies on the federal level.

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  7. Don't count out the NDP in Waterloo. They have Dianne Freeman, a current city Councilor and a really great engineering profession advocate.

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    1. I hope the NDP get in this time around. Their new ad is pretty blunt. All they have to do is state facts and it will sink the Cons.

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    2. Maybe they can set us up with one of those nice satellite offices. Or maybe access our home addresses through government records to send up party fliers. Oh boy!

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